Nepal PM Oli’s China Visit: Strategic Shifts and Challenges from India’s Perspective

Oli strengthens ties with Beijing, raising India’s concerns over strategic influence, sovereignty, and economic cooperation

Nepal’s Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli recently completed a four-day visit to China , marking a significant shift in the country’s diplomatic approach. Traditionally, newly elected Nepali leaders visit India first, but Oli chose Beijing, signaling strained relations between India and Nepal and a growing tilt towards China.

Key Agreements and Developments

During the visit, PM Oli met Chinese President Xi Jinping and signed pivotal agreements, including advancing the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Nepal. Although Nepal joined BRI in 2017, progress had stalled due to political disagreements and the absence of a framework. Under the new deal, Nepal proposed ten priority projects, such as the Madan Bhandari University and the China-Nepal Friendship Industrial Park. These projects will be financed through a combination of grants and concessional loans.

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India’s Concerns

Oli’s decision to visit China first reflects a shift that India cannot ignore. Issues such as Nepal’s approval of Chinese investments in India-Nepal projects, denial of overflight rights to Indian aircraft, and the printing of new Nepali maps featuring contested areas like Lipulekh, Kalapani, and Limpiyadhura have already raised alarms in New Delhi. Additionally, India has objected to certain Chinese-funded projects in Nepal that overlap with areas of Indian interest.

Strategic Gains for China

China achieved significant diplomatic wins during the visit. Nepal reaffirmed its commitment to the One-China policy and recognized Xizang (Tibet) as part of China. Beijing also secured agreements on enhanced border management, raising concerns about potential impacts on Tibetan refugees in Nepal. From India’s perspective, these developments indicate Beijing’s expanding influence over a key Himalayan neighbor.

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Growing Chinese Influence and Cultural Outreach

China’s initiatives, including Confucius Institutes and the Global Development Initiative (GDI), are deepening its cultural and educational footprint in Nepal. While Nepal declined to join China’s Global Security and Civilization Initiatives, India remains wary of the broader implications of these engagements.

Long-Term Implications for India-Nepal Ties

India’s historical ties with Nepal face new challenges as Kathmandu strengthens its relationship with Beijing. While Nepal seeks economic benefits, India fears losing its strategic leverage in the region. Oli’s moves to align closer with China risk undermining the longstanding India-Nepal partnership, particularly as unresolved issues such as Chinese encroachments into Nepalese territory go unaddressed in favor of short-term economic gains.

Conclusion

For India, Oli’s visit highlights the need for a recalibrated approach to Nepal. Ensuring mutual trust and addressing contentious issues proactively will be critical to maintaining India’s influence and safeguarding regional stability.

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