Syrian Rebels Launch Offensive in Aleppo After 8 Years: A Major Challenge for President Assad and Regional Stability

Syrian Rebels Launch Major Offensive in Aleppo After 8 Years: A New Challenge to Bashar Assad’s Regime and the Geopolitical Stability of the Middle East

Syrian rebels have launched a major assault on Aleppo, the country’s largest commercial hub, in a surprising move that is the first such assault on the city since it was recaptured by President Bashar Assad’s forces in 2016. The renewed fighting has already resulted in over 200 casualties and signals a dangerous escalation in Syria’s long-running civil war.

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Aleppo was once a thriving economic and cultural hub, but it has long been a symbol of the conflict that has ravaged Syria for over 13 years. The city had fallen into government control after a vicious aerial campaign backed by Russian forces, which had successfully crushed opposition in the region. Now, the sudden resurgence of rebel forces threatens to destabilize the fragile peace that had settled over the city.

This development is important not only for the future of Syria but for the broader geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. The current violence in Gaza, the US-backed conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon, and tensions surrounding Iranian influence all mean that Syria’s volatile situation is back in the spotlight. The Aleppo offensive is believed to have been partly prompted by a series of Israeli airstrikes targeting Hezbollah and Syrian military positions. These strikes, alongside a recent ceasefire, have reportedly spurred the rebels to reassert their presence in the city.

The challenge for President Assad is enormous. He has been able to maintain control throughout the conflict, largely because of the support he has received from Russia and Iran, but the rebel factions and foreign forces in most of Syria undermine his authority. About 30% of the country remains outside Assad’s reach, split between opposition groups and foreign military presences, including US and Turkish forces.

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This latest escalation comes after years of relative stagnation in the conflict. If the government forces cannot hold their ground, there is a real risk of a shift in the power dynamics in Syria, potentially leading to broader regional instability. According to Charles Lister, a Syria expert at the Middle East Institute, the involvement of global powers like Russia and Turkey further complicates the situation, because each nation is pursuing its own interests in Syria.

A principal force involved in the assault of Aleppo is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the Islamist militant organization known for their ties to al-Qaida. HTS once gained much notoriety due to its extreme action but more recently has claimed to represent a moderate movement through emphasizing governance within captured regions. However, given the status of HTS as an organization classified under terrorism listings by both the US and UN, with this being in tandem with a prior history of attacks, there are plenty of mixed concerns about them.

Apart from the rebel forces, Israel has been pounding both Syrian military positions and weapon storages belonging to Hezbollah. This increases the complication level as the involvement of Israelis can heighten the existing rivalry between regional powers.

In conclusion, renewed fighting in Aleppo marks a massive challenge for President Assad; his regime has been weakened due to more than ten years of war. Gaining momentum from the rebels and involving foreign powers, the route to Syria remains uncertain. Continued instability is a threat not only to Syria but to the whole Middle East as the effects of this war spill over into the region.

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